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Prediction for CME (2021-12-21T20:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-12-21T20:23Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/18611/-1
CME Note: Visible in SW of STEREO A COR2, later as a partial halo in SOHO LASCO C2. Associated with significant eruption/opening field lines with associated dimming/EUV wave observed in SDO AIA 193 starting around 2021-12-21T19:00Z. A filament feature is also observed in SDO AIA 304. | Update: "There is no clear CME signature on Dec 24-25. During the short-duration mag field rotations, the field is not much increased or quiet." - Lan Jian
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-12-25T20:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 30.0%
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
SWPC ENLIL settings:
ENLIL version:
Resolution:
Ambient settings:
WSA version:

CME input parameters
CME Event ID: A7977
Start Date/Time: 2021-12-22 02:25:00Z 
Latitude: -19°
Longitude: 20°
Half Angle: 21°
Radial Velocity: 531 km/s


Notes: 30% confidence estimated from SWPC Forecast discussion 2021-12-23T12:30Z:
"Modeling of the faint CME originating from the C4 flare from region 2909 on the 21st was accomplished and a low confidence glancing blow to the SW is forecasted for late 25 Dec to early on 26 Dec. No new Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery."

Lead Time: 80.00 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Robert Loper (M2M Office) on 2021-12-22T12:00Z

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